Yearly Archives: 2016

Kristin Gaspar’s Razor-thin Win, Blow-by-Blow

Just after election night, San Diego County District 3 watchers asked me how much of a chance Kristin Gaspar had of overcoming her then 1.7% deficit. I called it “unlikely, but not a longshot.” Read more

Categories: Campaigns| San Diego

CERC’s Final Voter Turnout Prediction

The 2016 Presidential election has induced much gnashing of teeth among voters. It seems like there has been an unprecedented amount of attention paid to election-related stress relief. Read more

Categories: San Diego| Voters

Voter Turnout: Donald and Hillary, you’re not quite John and Barack

Despite the two most odious major party candidates for President in our nation’s 240-year history, and despite a California ballot longer than should be allowed by law, if not by common sense, my current turnout prediction for 2016’s presidential election isn’t as dire as you might expect. Barack Obama’s 2008 wave generated a voter turnout of 83.5 percent countywide, according to the San Diego County Registrar of Voters (1,242,907 of 1,488,157 registered voters). 77.0 percent managed to get to the polls for the less thrilling race between the now-incumbent President Obama and Mitt Romney (1,203,265 of 1,563,093 registered voters). My prediction as of November 2, 2016 is for voter turnout to reach about 80 percent for San Diego County. This … Read more

Categories: Uncategorized

During Election Season, Journalists And Pollsters Need to Spend More Time on This

“Why do different pollsters come up with different results when asking the same question, such as who’s going to win the 2016 presidential campaign?” I’ve been asked versions of this question a lot. Read more

Categories: Polls

San Diego Election Turnout: The Postscript and the Preview

Now that all the votes have been tallied, let us take a look and see how our Competitive Edge predictions for the June primary election played out. When we posted the final turnout projection on June 1 for San Diego County, I called it at 51%. Lo and behold, the turnout was in fact 51% for the County. It is important to note this distinction: turnout for the presidential nomination and the contest for U.S. Senate drew fewer voters. In each of those contests, 45% of the county’s registered voters participated. This means plenty of ballots were left blank in these races. What gives? Faced with unappetizing choices, many Republicans skipped those races but cast their votes for other offices … Read more

Categories: San Diego

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