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September 2007
Civic Mood: Optimism Treads Water in City, Edges Higher in County
Results show a decline in civic optimism among city residents but an increase among county residents. Residents living outside the City of San Diego remain positive about the direction of their towns. The level of trust in San Diego city government rose slightly. The amount of distrust receded by 7%. The main issue in the City continues to be governement finances which is followed by crime. Outside the City, crime takes the top spot. The research was conducted September 4-9 among 1008 adult residents within the County of San Diego.
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About the SDIPR/Competitive Edge Opinion Barometer
This survey was conducted by Competitive Edge Research & Communication (CERC) in conjunction with the San Diego Institute for Policy Research (SDIPR). SDIPR and CERC jointly determined the issues to be covered in this survey. SDIPR provided CERC with background information on the issues to be researched and both entities discussed the topics in order to produce an effective questionnaire. Final responsibility for all questions, the data collection and the analysis presented herein rests with CERC.
These findings are based on a random sample of 1000 County of San Diego residents. The interviewing was conducted March 1st through the 6th in English and Spanish from CERC's San Diego facility. Professional interviewers were specifically trained for this project. The duration of the average interview was 16 minutes. The random digit dial sample was provided by Scientific Telephone Samples of Foothill Ranch, CA. After collecting the data, results were weighted on the voter registration, gender and age variables to CERC's estimates of the overall San Diego County population gathered from the US Census and the San Diego County Registrar of Voters.
Sampling Error
According to statistical theory, the confidence level associated with a sample of this type is such that, with a question where the respondents answer 50% "yes" and 50% "no," 95% of the time the results are within plus or minus 3.2% of the true value, where true value refers to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every possible qualified respondent. The degree of error is reduced when responses have larger (e.g. 60%-40%, 70%-30%) percentage differences. Conversely, the margin of error increases when a subset of the entire 1000 responses is analyzed.
In addition to error introduced by sampling variability, there are many other possible sources of bias such as how a question is worded, the question sequence, or individual interviewer techniques. Competitive Edge does everything in its power to minimize these potential sources of bias.
A survey of this type is a good measure of current attitudes that may change over time. This survey should not necessarily serve as an unqualified predictor of events, but, as an indicator to the situation in early March, 2007.
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