Category Archives: Campaigns

What Happened with the Polls in Virginia?

“The polls were wildly off in the Virginia election.” That’s how one Vox article put it after Democrat Ralph Northam beat his opponent by 8.9 percent on the first Tuesday in November. Read more

Categories: Campaigns| GOP| Polls| Trump

The Trump Effect: Trust in Polling

Just after election night, San Diego County District 3 watchers asked me how much of a chance Kristin Gaspar had of overcoming her then 1.7% deficit. I called it “unlikely, but not a longshot.” Read more

Categories: Campaigns| GOP| Polls| Trump

Kristin Gaspar’s Razor-thin Win, Blow-by-Blow

Just after election night, San Diego County District 3 watchers asked me how much of a chance Kristin Gaspar had of overcoming her then 1.7% deficit. I called it “unlikely, but not a longshot.” Read more

Categories: Campaigns| San Diego

Bernie Sanders campaign ad

Too many campaign ads forget about the need to be visually arresting in a medium like television. It seems basic, but we’ve seen a lot of earnest but dull ads with candidates talking with constituents, giving a speech, or posing with a charming and cute bunch of kids Read more

Categories: Campaigns| In The News

Solid Research Means No Election Night Surprises

News media and political pundits are still scratching their heads over the outcome of San Diego’s mayoral runoff election on February 11. If you read the published polls, you might be scratching your head, too. The result was no surprise here at Competitive Edge Research & Communication, and that’s not just because we conducted all the research for Mayor-Elect Kevin Faulconer on behalf of Revolvis. It’s also because people have a faulty understanding of how polls should be used. The main objective of a campaign poll is to drive strategy, not merely to collect data. Horse race polls might be entertaining, but data means little without analysis and insight. A campaign must understand voter intentions; why opinion is the way … Read more

Categories: Campaigns| Polls

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