Category Archives: GOP

The Trump Effect: Trust in Polling

Just after election night, San Diego County District 3 watchers asked me how much of a chance Kristin Gaspar had of overcoming her then 1.7% deficit. I called it “unlikely, but not a longshot.” Read more

Categories: Campaigns| GOP| Polls| Trump

Donald and Arnold: don’t be fooled by superficial similarities

I’m done underestimating Donald Trump. After Super Tuesday with Trump taking all of the Florida delegates and making a good showing in Ohio behind Governor John Kasich, a lot of people involved at the periphery of politics are thinking the same thing. What originally seemed like a reality TV show stunt turned into a serious challenge to the Republican status quo. Trump’s status as the frontrunner and his momentum are now undeniable. As political observers and media commentators try to make sense of it, they turn as they often do to recent political history. They have seized on making comparisons between Donald Trump’s quest for the GOP nomination for president with Arnold Schwarzenegger’s equally improbable (at the time) run for … Read more

Categories: GOP| Trump

When Lame Polls Happen to News Consumers

There will be no shortage of polls as the presidential primary season rages on in 2016. They will report various results and some will be more accurate than others due to their methodology. Sorry to say one of the lamest polls we’ve seen is one conducted by a cable operation based right here in San Diego: One America News Network. Too bad, the home town players don’t get a pass. It purports to show GOP candidate and apparent front runner Donald Trump won the last presidential debate of 2015. Don’t believe the numbers. First, it’s an automated poll. This means no one was reached on a cellphone, because only real human beings are permitted to call cellphone numbers. So think … Read more

Categories: Debate| GOP| Polls| Trump

GOP Primary: Better To Be Tardy to the (Republican) Party?

With more than a dozen candidates pursuing the Republican presidential nomination, some will inevitably quit and cut their losses before getting to Iowa. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker ended his bid this week. He was originally considered a favorite due to his record in the statehouse, but his campaign was a big disappointment. Walker told supporters he had made the decision to “clear the field” and make it easier for voters to assess Republican candidates. “I encourage other Republican presidential candidates to consider doing the same so the voters can focus on a limited number of candidates who can offer a positive conservative alternative to the current front-runner. This is fundamentally important to the future of the party and — ultimately … Read more

Categories: GOP| In The News

Shining a Light into the GOP’s Generational Black Hole

Finding hope in the GOP’s generation black hole might seem daunting. The Republican’s most recent choice for president lost to voters under 35 by about 22 percent. The candidate before the buttoned-down Mitt Romney, Sen. John McCain, fared worse. Unless this situation changes, the Republican candidate is likely doomed to repeat this pattern of failure in the next presidential contest in 2016. Researching what makes these young voters tick helps us better understand why they’re just not digging the Grand Old Party. Here is what this generational black hole looks like. Meet Jared Santos. He and his girlfriend, Alisa, have a two-year-old daughter. Jared is a roofer with a few years of college who earns $57,000 a year.  Alisa works … Read more

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