Category Archives: Polls

The Trump Effect: Trust in Polling

Just after election night, San Diego County District 3 watchers asked me how much of a chance Kristin Gaspar had of overcoming her then 1.7% deficit. I called it “unlikely, but not a longshot.” Read more

Categories: Campaigns| GOP| Polls| Trump

During Election Season, Journalists And Pollsters Need to Spend More Time on This

“Why do different pollsters come up with different results when asking the same question, such as who’s going to win the 2016 presidential campaign?” I’ve been asked versions of this question a lot. Read more

Categories: Polls

Let the Iowa caucus polling post mortems commence

The moment the results are in from the Iowa caucus, the caucus post mortem critique begins. Polling predictions take a major hit for not correctly predicting the outcomes. Even J. Ann Selzer, recently labeled “the best pollster in America” in a recent Five Thirty Eight profile is taking heat. Bloomberg Politics went as far as declaring “Iowa Results Underscore Polling Industry Vulnerability.” One thing all pollsters know: this sort of criticism goes with the territory. Just how far off were the polls? Let’s take a look at the record. First, understand that the only legitimate way to assess a pre-election poll’s accuracy regarding the outcome is to assign all of the respondents who say they are “undecided” to a particular … Read more

Categories: In The News| Polls

When Lame Polls Happen to News Consumers

There will be no shortage of polls as the presidential primary season rages on in 2016. They will report various results and some will be more accurate than others due to their methodology. Sorry to say one of the lamest polls we’ve seen is one conducted by a cable operation based right here in San Diego: One America News Network. Too bad, the home town players don’t get a pass. It purports to show GOP candidate and apparent front runner Donald Trump won the last presidential debate of 2015. Don’t believe the numbers. First, it’s an automated poll. This means no one was reached on a cellphone, because only real human beings are permitted to call cellphone numbers. So think … Read more

Categories: Debate| GOP| Polls| Trump

Marty Tries to Use a Poll to Pull a Fast One October 27, 2015

Marty Tries to Use a Poll to Pull a Fast One October 27, 2015 My previous blog post identified an appalling lack of transparency in the reports of the polling conducted for Assemblywoman Toni Atkins. Bad stuff there. Not to be outdone, Senator Marty Block released his own internal campaign polling. He used the GaronHartYang Research Group for his polling. This is the same outfit that conducted an infamous Chargers poll a few months back. Block’s October 9 press release made no mention of it, trumpeting that his poll was conducted by the “NBC News/Wall Street Journal Pollster” insinuating it was a media poll rather than his campaign poll. Block’s release blares, “Poll Shows Block with Double Digit Lead in … Read more

Categories: Polls| San Diego

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