Category Archives: Trump

The Trump Effect: Trust in Polling

Just after election night, San Diego County District 3 watchers asked me how much of a chance Kristin Gaspar had of overcoming her then 1.7% deficit. I called it “unlikely, but not a longshot.” Read more

Categories: Campaigns| GOP| Polls| Trump

Voter Turnout Will Stink Again – What Else Is New in California?

ELECTION EVE UPDATE, June 6:  Well wouldn’t you know it?  I write a blog post talking about California’s stinky voter turnout and the next day things start picking up.  I’m therefore raising my turnout projection for the state of California to 42%, for San Diego County to 51% and for the City of San Diego to 46%. While most observers would likely characterize these levels of voter participation as sickly, they are big improvements over what we were facing only last week.  One important caveat for local races:  There will be a sizeable number of people who vote for a Presidential nominee but not on so-called “down ballot” races. Historically, there could be a 5% drop-off to the mayoral vote … Read more

Categories: Trump| Voters

Donald and Arnold: don’t be fooled by superficial similarities

I’m done underestimating Donald Trump. After Super Tuesday with Trump taking all of the Florida delegates and making a good showing in Ohio behind Governor John Kasich, a lot of people involved at the periphery of politics are thinking the same thing. What originally seemed like a reality TV show stunt turned into a serious challenge to the Republican status quo. Trump’s status as the frontrunner and his momentum are now undeniable. As political observers and media commentators try to make sense of it, they turn as they often do to recent political history. They have seized on making comparisons between Donald Trump’s quest for the GOP nomination for president with Arnold Schwarzenegger’s equally improbable (at the time) run for … Read more

Categories: GOP| Trump

When Lame Polls Happen to News Consumers

There will be no shortage of polls as the presidential primary season rages on in 2016. They will report various results and some will be more accurate than others due to their methodology. Sorry to say one of the lamest polls we’ve seen is one conducted by a cable operation based right here in San Diego: One America News Network. Too bad, the home town players don’t get a pass. It purports to show GOP candidate and apparent front runner Donald Trump won the last presidential debate of 2015. Don’t believe the numbers. First, it’s an automated poll. This means no one was reached on a cellphone, because only real human beings are permitted to call cellphone numbers. So think … Read more

Categories: Debate| GOP| Polls| Trump

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