Category Archives: Voters

Final Turnout Projection for San Diego

My final turnout projection for the City of San Diego in today’s June Primary election is 25% to 27%. Turnout will be about 2% higher in City Council Districts 2 and 6, which are hosting competitive races. Turnout should be about 1% to 2% higher in the County of San Diego than it is in the City. The reasons for this lackluster performance – voter fatigue, a lack of sexy issues up and down the ballot, non-races at the statewide level – have been discussed in this blog. I’ll add that the open primary format – if it was intended to boost participation — has been a dismal failure this year. When you’re not calling on the electorate to actually … Read more

Categories: Polls| San Diego| Voters

Did Someone in San Diego Say “Rally?”

Yep, over the past week San Diego voters have shown some giddy-up. Not enough to avoid a record low voter turnout for the June Primary, but at least the city will avoid LA-like ignominy where turnout lands in the teens. The previous 16% projection for voter turnout was based on data from last week and it turned out to be just too awful to last. With the wildfires and Memorial Day barbeques behind them and Election Day only a week away, more high propensity voters have rousted themselves. The folks we count on to regularly do their civic duty are now starting to participate more like they have in the past. On the other hand, there is no evidence at … Read more

Categories: Polls| San Diego| Voters

Column Image Vote and Prove Me Wrong

With the June Primary almost a week away, San Diego is on the cusp of experiencing record low voter turnout. I’m talking about turnout potentially so weak it could damage the city’s psyche. The top of the ticket and propositions are usually responsible for creating excitement and driving voters to the polls, but those campaigns have been blah, blah, blah. Incumbent California Governor Jerry Brown is content to let nature take its course. In a state where his Democrats enjoy a 15% advantage over Republicans, the popular Governor is mounting no campaign and many Democrats see zero reason to cast a ballot. Largely dispirited Republicans are not thrilled about going to the polls (though, being Republicans, many will vote anyway). … Read more

Categories: Polls| San Diego| Voters

Column Image Coin Flipping Voters

Would you hire someone to work for you by flipping a coin? Of course not. How about flipping a coin to decide who represents you in Congress or the state legislature?  It sounds crazy, but that’s essentially what lots of Californians do when they vote for a candidate. They perform the voting equivalent of flipping a coin when hiring someone to represent them in public office. Throughout my years of experience with Competitive Edge Communication & Research conducting political research and analyzing election results, I’ve identified voters who know almost nothing about both candidates in a two candidate race. However, they consider voting — all the way down the ballot — their civic duty. These folks wind up on Election … Read more

Categories: Campaigns| Voters


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