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Opinion Barometer July 2007
SDI/CERC Barometer: Decline in Public’s Job Approval of Mayor Jerry Sanders
While most San Diegans approve of the job being done by Mayor Jerry Sanders, that support has fallen significantly between May and early July. The July poll reveals 60 percent of San Diegans approve of Mayor Sanders’ job performance compared to 21 percent who disapprove. This is down from May, when 64 percent of residents approved of the job the Mayor was doing and 17 percent disapproved. Ideological and partisan considerations have been swamped by the Mayor’s handling of the situation related to Sunroad’s building near Montgomery Field and the overall mood of the populace.
The Barometer finds that the more importance respondents attach to the Sunroad dispute and the more pessimistic residents are about the direction of the City, the less likely they are to approve of the Mayor’s job performance. The survey also looked at awareness of the controversy surrounding the Sunroad Enterprises building near Montgomery Field. Fifty-seven percent of residents indicate that they had seen, read or heard a lot or some about this dispute, but 30 percent indicate that they had heard, read or seen nothing. Those saying they had not heard about the issue tend to be younger, less affluent, and live south of Interstate 8.
Not surprisingly, the poll finds that most residents blame Sunroad Enterprises for the problem, with 57 percent assigning a lot of blame to the company and another 25 percent assigning Sunroad some of the blame. Residents next find fault with Mayor Sanders, with 21 percent saying the Mayor shoulders a lot of blame for the problem and another 32 percent saying he bears some responsibility.
About the SDIPR/Competitive Edge Opinion Barometer
This survey was conducted by Competitive Edge Research & Communication (CERC) in conjunction with the San Diego Institute for Policy Research (SDIPR). SDIPR and CERC jointly determined the issues to be covered in this survey. SDIPR provided CERC with background information on the issues to be researched and both entities discussed the topics in order to produce an effective questionnaire. Final responsibility for all questions, the data collection and the analysis presented herein rests with CERC.
These findings are based on a random sample of 1000 County of San Diego residents. The interviewing was conducted March 1st through the 6th in English and Spanish from CERC’s San Diego facility. Professional interviewers were specifically trained for this project. The duration of the average interview was 16 minutes. The random digit dial sample was provided by Scientific Telephone Samples of Foothill Ranch, CA. After collecting the data, results were weighted on the voter registration, gender and age variables to CERC’s estimates of the overall San Diego County population gathered from the US Census and the San Diego County Registrar of Voters.
Sampling Error
According to statistical theory, the confidence level associated with a sample of this type is such that, with a question where the respondents answer 50% “yes” and 50% “no,” 95% of the time the results are within plus or minus 3.2% of the true value, where true value refers to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every possible qualified respondent. The degree of error is reduced when responses have larger (e.g. 60%-40%, 70%-30%) percentage differences. Conversely, the margin of error increases when a subset of the entire 1000 responses is analyzed.
In addition to error introduced by sampling variability, there are many other possible sources of bias such as how a question is worded, the question sequence, or individual interviewer techniques. Competitive Edge does everything in its power to minimize these potential sources of bias.
A survey of this type is a good measure of current attitudes that may change over time. This survey should not necessarily serve as an unqualified predictor of events, but, as an indicator to the situation in early March, 2007.
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