The Edge: Competitive Edge Blog

During Election Season, Journalists And Pollsters Need to Spend More Time on This

“Why do different pollsters come up with different results when asking the same question, such as who’s going to win the 2016 presidential campaign?” I’ve been asked versions of this question a lot. Read more

Categories: Polls

San Diego Election Turnout: The Postscript and the Preview

Now that all the votes have been tallied, let us take a look and see how our Competitive Edge predictions for the June primary election played out. When we posted the final turnout projection on June 1 for San Diego County, I called it at 51%. Lo and behold, the turnout was in fact 51% for the County. It is important to note this distinction: turnout for the presidential nomination and the contest for U.S. Senate drew fewer voters. In each of those contests, 45% of the county’s registered voters participated. This means plenty of ballots were left blank in these races. What gives? Faced with unappetizing choices, many Republicans skipped those races but cast their votes for other offices … Read more

Categories: San Diego

Voter Turnout Will Stink Again – What Else Is New in California?

ELECTION EVE UPDATE, June 6:  Well wouldn’t you know it?  I write a blog post talking about California’s stinky voter turnout and the next day things start picking up.  I’m therefore raising my turnout projection for the state of California to 42%, for San Diego County to 51% and for the City of San Diego to 46%. While most observers would likely characterize these levels of voter participation as sickly, they are big improvements over what we were facing only last week.  One important caveat for local races:  There will be a sizeable number of people who vote for a Presidential nominee but not on so-called “down ballot” races. Historically, there could be a 5% drop-off to the mayoral vote … Read more

Categories: Trump| Voters

Sacrilege: Money in Politics Can Be a Good Thing

After spending $11 million on a ballot measure voted on by fewer than 40,000 people, Caruso Affiliated lost its bid to win approval for its Agua Hedionda South Shore Specific Plan. The final count was 20,542 against (52.08 percent), and 18,903 in favor (47.92 percent). Read more

Categories: In The News

Donald and Arnold: don’t be fooled by superficial similarities

I’m done underestimating Donald Trump. After Super Tuesday with Trump taking all of the Florida delegates and making a good showing in Ohio behind Governor John Kasich, a lot of people involved at the periphery of politics are thinking the same thing. What originally seemed like a reality TV show stunt turned into a serious challenge to the Republican status quo. Trump’s status as the frontrunner and his momentum are now undeniable. As political observers and media commentators try to make sense of it, they turn as they often do to recent political history. They have seized on making comparisons between Donald Trump’s quest for the GOP nomination for president with Arnold Schwarzenegger’s equally improbable (at the time) run for … Read more

Categories: GOP| Trump

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