Research

Results of Final 2018 Pre-Primary California Gubernatorial Poll

This analysis is based on the results from our poll of 504 randomly-sampled likely California June primary voters which we fielded May 29 through 30. The turnout model reflects 30% participation in the June primary election. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.4% at the 95% confidence level. Interviews were conducted by trained professionals from our offices in El Paso, TX, and via e-mail. Our initial poll was conducted May 20 to 22.

Results of Final 2018 Pre-Primary California Gubernatorial Poll

Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom easily maintains his leading position in the campaign’s final week. Reinforcing last week’s Competitive Edge poll findings, Newsom will face Republican businessman John Cox in November’s general election, barring their complete collapse. Support for both candidates is holding steady and remains strong. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and Republican Assemblyman Travis Allen remain locked in a battle for third place. Educator Delaine Eastin and State Treasurer John Chiang still trail the rest of the field, with the latter losing ground in the last week. Ten percent of likely voters remain undecided with less than a week left in the campaign, making chances of a second-tier candidate closing the gap very slim.

pdficonCERC-CA-Governor-Final-Primary-Poll-Memo-w.Topline

pdficonCA-Governor-Tables