Research

SD Chamber & Silvergate Bank – Monthly Business Forecast

Can your business use insights into future trends of the San Diego regional business community? Competitive Edge Research is conducting monthly economic reports to provide this valuable information, brought to you by the San Diego Regional Chamber and Silvergate Bank. Click on the dates below to view the monthly reports.

 

 

 

 

 

 December 2016 – Confidence Among County Businesses Rebounds
After confidence dropped to a new low last month, this month’s Business Forecast, sponsored by Silvergate Bank, shows the Business Outlook Index (BOI) among county businesses rebounded from 9 to a far healthier 18. With a brighter outlook ahead, it seems the downturn was a by-product of the uncertainty caused by a rancorous Presidential election campaign.

 November 2016 – County Business Outlook Drops To New Low
Continuing a trend that extends back over a year to mid-2015, San Diego County’s Business Outlook Index (BOI), which reflects how the business community assesses the coming three months, took a big 7.5 point drop to 9.3. This is the lowest point since the survey began in August 2013 and the first time the Index has dipped into single digits.

 October 2016 – Outlook Among County Businesses Holds Steady
After testing a new low point last month, county businesses show little change in their optimism for the last quarter of the year. The Business Outlook Index in this month’s Silvergate Bank-sponsored Business Forecast rises just about a point to 16.8. This shows that San Diego’s business community continues to be moderately optimistic about its near-term prospects because the BOI ranges from -100 to +100, with zero being neutral.

September 2016 – County Business Outlook Takes Another Dip, Finds New Low
Confidence among San Diego County businesses continues to fluctuate in this month’s Silvergate Bank-sponsored Business Forecast as the Business Outlook Index tests a new low, dropping to 15.6. Some of this downturn is attributed to businesses offering fewer work hours to employees as summer ends. This month’s Forecast also asked about diversity in the workplace, finding that feelings are mixed as to the importance of diversity on business success and the majority view their industry as adequately diverse. Most notable is the finding that companies that place a high value on diversity in the workplace are far more optimistic over the next few months than firms which see it as less important.

August 2016 – County Businesses Agree: Housing Expensive and More Needs to be Built
The region’s housing shortage has become an ongoing conversation as to the impacts on economic growth. This month’s Forecast finds more than 90 percent of businesses in San Diego County agreeing that the region’s housing is expensive. A smaller majority also agree building additional housing in their community is at least a somewhat important thing to do. This month’s Forecast also shows that confidence among county businesses continues to fluctuate. The Business Outlook Index moved up about 5 points to 20.9 from last month’s 15.7 which was the lowest point since the survey began. Still in moderately positive territory, the outlook remains pressured by minimum wage increases and the negative impacts those mandates have on business confidence.

July 2016 – County Business Outlook Sinks To Lowest Point Yet
Confidence among San Diego County businesses has fallen to 15.7, its lowest point since the survey began in August 2013. While this is the lowest point the Index has hit since the survey’s start, the business community’s outlook is still in somewhat positive territory because the BOI’s scoring has zero as neutral. This month’s Forecast also took the annual measurement of how business friendly local governments are and whether firms are considering moving out of the county.

June 2016 – County Business Outlook Regains Stability
Bank-sponsored Business Forecast shows a modest change in outlook among county businesses from last month. San Diego County’s Business Outlook Index (BOI) rests at 21.3, four points below its all-time average of 25.1. As the BOI ranges from -100 to +100, with zero being neutral, the business community’s outlook does remain moderately positive.

May 2016 – Minimum Wage Increase Curtails Rebound of County’s Business Outlook
The County’s Business Outlook, which surged last month to the highest point since June 2015, has reversed and is now back down to 19.4 where it was in February. The BOI is nine points lower than a year ago and four points lower than its 50-week average of 23.2. The main factors dragging the Outlook down are a waning confidence in hiring and the imminent increase in the minimum
wage.

April 2016 – County Business Outlook Makes Strong Rebound
After a dramatic drop of more than 5 points last month, the business outlook among county businesses has surged and the Business Outlook Index (BOI) now stands at 26.9. This is the first time the BOI has been above the historical average of 25.3 since June 2015.

March 2016 – After Two Months of Positive Growth County Business Outlook Falls Again
In the last quarter of 2015 the BOI was 19, well off its usual pace. Now, the Business Outlook Index (BOI) stands at 25, a significant improvement over the latter half of 2015. The increase from late 2015 to January shows the upward momentum observed in December was not a fluke.

February 2016 –Optimism for County Business Outlook Continues
In the last quarter of 2015 the BOI was 19, well off its usual pace. Now, the Business Outlook Index (BOI) stands at 25, a significant improvement over the latter half of 2015. The increase from late 2015 to January shows the upward momentum observed in December was not a fluke.

January 2016 –San Diego County’s Business Outlook Optimistic For Start of 2016
The New Year has brought a brighter attitude among San Diego County business people. The Business Outlook Index (BOI) came off its lowest mark (16.6), surging to 23.3 currently. The BOI has a range of -100 to +100, with zero indicating a neutral outlook. While this month’s positive jump has been significant, the BOI’s overall trend since its inception has been downward and it remains more than two points below its all-time average.

December 2015 – San Diego County’s Business Outlook Continues Downward
Although still fairly positive, county businesses post a Business Outlook Index (BOI) of 16.6, which sets a new low as we head into 2016. This month’s survey also finds that 19 percent of the County’s businesses have been negatively impacted by the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and the business community shows substantial support for CEQA reforms.

November 2015 – San Diego County’s Business Outlook Index At All-Time Low
San Diego County businesses foresee ending the year in a slower lane. This month’s Business Forecast, sponsored by Silvergate Bank, shows the mild economic “breather” first identified in July has gained downward momentum. The current BOI of only 17 is now the least optimistic in 28 months of surveys.

October 2015 – Affordable Care Act Still a Mystery to Majority of San Diego Businesses
With new elements of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) set to take effect in January 2016 – including a change to the definition of “small employer,” as well as more reporting requirements – about half of San Diego County businesses admit they do not know enough about the law to gauge how it will affect their business.

September 2015 – Women Executives Underrepresented in County; Dip in Outlook Continues
When looking at leaders of businesses throughout the region, how do women stack up when it comes to executive positions? According to business people in San Diego County, 37 percent of the executive positions in their industries are held by women.

August 2015 – San Diego Businesses Mixed on Internships;Outlook Dips from Trend
An internship is often a coveted first experience in one’s preferred industry and career of choice, but sentiment is mixed among San Diego County businesses when it comes to offering such positions and the perceived value of the experience.

July 2015 – Businesses Considering Move from County Drops By Nearly Half
With San Diego’s minimum wage increase delayed until at least January 2017 and the local economy humming, this month’s Business Forecast shows that companies are more confident and the urge to leave the County has subsided.

June 2015 – County Businesses Say Government Should Make Taxes and Fees Higher Priority
City governments want their local businesses to succeed and business could use their local government’s help to do that. This month’s Business Forecast, sponsored by Silvergate Bank, reports that 31 percent businesses want their local government’s priority to be keeping taxes and fees low. Yet only 11 percent of businesses surveyed say that is what their local government does best.

May 2015 – San Diego County Businesses Brace for Water Restrictions
As California’s historic drought brings brown lawns and three-minute showers to households across San Diego, some businesses in the region are preparing for a loss in revenue and jobs.

April 2015 – Small Business View Cyber Space as Less Secure than 3 Years Ago
As cyber-attacks continue to lead headlines, one would think that businesses across the board would ramp-up precautionary measures. Yet, this month’s Business Forecast shows that’s not entirely true, particularly for small businesses.

March 2015 – Water Reliability Tops Legislative Priorities; Upbeat View from County Businesses Continues
Access to a reliable water source tops the list of important issues the state legislature should be tackling, according to San Diego County businesses. This month’s Business Forecast shows nearly 30 percent of businesses want Sacramento law makers to focus on water reliability.

February 2015 – County’s Business Outlook Optimistic; Infrastructure a Concern in City
Having bounced around the mid-20s during the past half year, the February Business Forecast, sponsored by Silvergate Bank, shows the Business Outlook Index™ (BOI) following suit at 26.5. This month’s Forecast also sheds light on the quality of infrastructure throughout the county.

January 2015 – Business Outlook Remains Moderately Positive
Entering 2015, the business outlook for San Diego firms over the next three months remains moderately positive and the Business Outlook Index™ (BOI) now stands at 24.4. However, a slight, yet clear, yearlong downward trend is evident.

December 2014 – Positive Business Outlook Projected for Early 2015
As San Diego County businesses look ahead to 2015, most continue to like what they see. This month’s Business Forecast, sponsored by Silvergate Bank, shows the general business climate is continuing a positive trend as the Business Outlook Index™ (BOI) sits at 26.8, up two points from last month.

November 2014 – County’s Positive Business Outlook Continues for Q4 2014
This month’s Business Forecast shows that San Diego County businesses continue to project a positive outlook for 2014’s fourth quarter. The Forecast’s Business Outlook Index™ (BOI) sits at 24.8, an insignificant dip from last month which shows businesses maintained roughly the same degree of optimism from last month.

October 2014 – Outlook Steady & Improved Optimism for Workforce Hours
The County’s Business Outlook Index™ (BOI) has ridden its August gains to edge up slightly to 26.7 after July’s serious tumble. This uptick is mainly driven by renewed optimism about increased workforce hours.

September 2014 – Outlook Rebounds & Minimum Wage Concerns Grow
After last month’s serious tumble in the Business Outlook Index™ (BOI), this month we see a slight rebound, but that is coupled with a strong increase in anxiety about San Diego’s recently approved increase in the minimum wage.

August 2014 – County’s Business Outlook at Lowest Point
After four consecutive months of insignificant ebbing, the outlook for San Diego County businesses has taken a serious tumble. The Forecast, which is sponsored by Silvergate Bank, shows its Business Outlook Index™ (BOI) for San Diego County has fallen to 18.5 for August – the lowest point that has been registered.

July 2014 – Survey Indicates 14% of Businesses Considering Leaving San Diego
The outlook among San Diego County businesses has continued to improve since the Business Forecast report initially launched in July 2013. February’s Business Outlook Index reached a new all-time high at +29.7.

June 2014 – San Diego County’s Business Outlook Remains Sunny
As we look forward to the second half of 2014, San Diego County businesses are showing growing concern over the proposed minimum wage increase, but the general mood among local firms remains positive. The San Diego County Business Forecast’s Outlook Index™ (BOI) remains confident at an even +28.0 for June.

May 2014 – Businesses Optimistic Yet Anxious About Minimum Wage Increase
Nearly six months into to 2014, San Diego County businesses remain optimistic for the remainder of the year. After the County’s Business Outlook Index™ (BOI) hit its high in February of this year, the Index has continued to be positive coming in at +29.5 for May.

April 2014 – Businesses Outline Priorities For New Mayor While Q2 Outlook Remains Healthy
The outlook among San Diego County’s businesses continues to reflect optimism. This month’s County’s Business Outlook Index™ (BOI) remains steady at an even +30.0, slightly behind March’s +31.2 yet ahead of February’s +29.7.

March 2014 – San Diego County’s Business Outlook Keeps Improving
The San Diego County Business Forecast continues to improve reaching a new high in March 2014 of +31.2. Specifically, businesses are predicting an uptick in industry conditions but still remain worried about the Affordable Care Act and government regulations.

February 2014 – February’s Business Outlook Hits New High
The outlook among San Diego County businesses has continued to improve since the Business Forecast report initially launched in July 2013. February’s Business Outlook Index reached a new all-time high at +29.7.

January 2014 – Business Outlook Remains Healthy at End of 2013, Into New Year
The first report of 2014 shows local businesses continue to feel optimistic about revenue projections and workforce growth.  The County’s Business Outlook Index stays strong at +27.8.

December 2013 – Business Confidence Rebounds Despite Concerns Over Obamacare
December’s report shows a rebound in business confidence, despite a few lingering concerns about the Affordable Care Act and government regulations.  After declining for the past two consecutive months, the County’s Business Outlook Index has risen from +18.6 to a new high of +29.4.

November 2013 – Businesses’ Q4 Outlook Continues to Decline
The latest monthly report shows a continued trend of declining business confdience due to various factors, including the government shutdown, Affordable Care Act and mayor’s race.  The report also shows how businesses located in the City and County are following the mayor’s race and their favored candidate.

October 2013 – Early Signs of Waning Business Confidence, Focus Turns to Most Important Quality in Next Mayor
This third monthly report shows a waning confidence level among San Diego regional businesses, with the County’s Business Outlook Index reaching its lowest point in the last three months. In addition, the report focuses on the business community’s preferences for the next Mayor of San Diego. Results showed that nearly half of respondents focused on personal character traits, such as “integrity” and “honesty”.

September 2013 – Business Community Reflects on Damage Done by Mayor Filner
The second monthly San Diego County Business Forecast, conducted August 7-20, 2013, showed responses from the regional business community about the impact of the Mayor Filner scandal at City Hall.  Nearly 50% of San Diego companies felt that the Mayor Filner crisis negatively impacted the regional business community. In addition, more than half of businesses agreed that the situation with Mayor Filner has hurt San Diego’s overall economy.

August 2013 – Inaugural Forecast Shows Cautious Optimism in County
The inaugural San Diego County Business Forecast was conducted July 11-26, 2013.  While some industries show optimism about the next three months, 51% of businesses reported that they are facing new challenges, including the crisis surrounding Mayor Filner, the Affordable Care Act and ongoing regulations and taxes imposed by government.  In addition, healthcare/medical, cyber/IT/software and business consulting are the three fastest growing industries in San Diego.

About The San Diego County Business Forecast
The San Diego County Business Forecast, sponsored by Silvergate Bank and conducted by Competitive Edge Research, is a monthly report that compiles insights and analysis on survey responses from more than 200 local business executives from the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce and the East County Chamber of Commerce. Non-profit organizations are excluded from the results and all members are invited to complete the survey either online or over the phone. Results are based a Business Outlook Index™ which runs from -100 to +100, with zero being a neutral outlook.

Click here to learn more about the San Diego County Business Forecast.