The Edge: Competitive Edge Blog

Did Someone in San Diego Say “Rally?”

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Yep, over the past week San Diego voters have shown some giddy-up. Not enough to avoid a record low voter turnout for the June Primary, but at least the city will avoid LA-like ignominy where turnout lands in the teens. The previous 16% projection for voter turnout was based on data from last week and it turned out to be just too awful to last.

With the wildfires and Memorial Day barbeques behind them and Election Day only a week away, more high propensity voters have rousted themselves. The folks we count on to regularly do their civic duty are now starting to participate more like they have in the past.

On the other hand, there is no evidence at all that moderate propensity voters (those who vote every other election, on average) are becoming excited about this election. The upshot is that citywide turnout will wind up in the 22% to 25% range, if current trends continue.

This is still way below the normal mid-30s for a June Primary election.

Interested in City Council Districts 2 and 6? The additional excitement caused by competitive races there (woot, woot) will boost turnout by 2% to 3% in each District.

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