Well how do you like that? No sooner do I post dire voter turnout projections for the state than California’s voters start trying to prove me wrong. In the days since my initial prediction, participation in the 2014 election has surged. What had looked like a dip in turnout was only a lull in the action.
At this point, I’m still predicting a record low. The lowest participation rate for a gubernatorial general election was 51% in 2002. I now calculate that only 47% to 50% of the state’s registered voters will cast a ballot. There is a chance that a record won’t be set. I’ll update my turnout projection with a final percentage on Monday.