Yearly Archives: 2014

Tony Gwynn Was Wrong

“When I am dead and gone, all that will be left is the numbers. They will not remember how much heart a person had, or how consistent he was, they will just look at the numbers. And the numbers will tell them that I won eight batting titles; that I tied Honus Wagner for winning the most. The numbers will tell them that Wagner was a .345 lifetime hitter, and that I am a .340 lifetime hitter. So who was better? Honus Wagner. That is how it will be judged.”  Tony Gwynn’s acknowledgement in The Art of Hitting Tony Gwynn, the great San Diego Padres outfielder who passed away last week, was right about a lot of things, but he … Read more

Categories: San Diego| Uncategorized

Column Image Will low voter turnout give Republican Neel Kashkari a chance?

November 2014 could be a real downer for California when it comes to voter turnout. The June primary turnout was stunningly — unprecedentedly — bad, as only 23 percent of registered voters cast a ballot. This embarrassing record justifiably gets me thinking about whether the upcoming general election will sink to a record low as well. Eyeballing the chart which shows turnout over time, we can see that there is a relationship between the level of turnout in California’s gubernatorial primary and general elections. In fact, the correlation coefficient is a robust 0.83, suggesting that 83 percent of the reason why turnout was what it was in those November elections is a product of turnout in those primaries. So, yeah, … Read more

Categories: Uncategorized

Final Turnout Projection for San Diego

My final turnout projection for the City of San Diego in today’s June Primary election is 25% to 27%. Turnout will be about 2% higher in City Council Districts 2 and 6, which are hosting competitive races. Turnout should be about 1% to 2% higher in the County of San Diego than it is in the City. The reasons for this lackluster performance – voter fatigue, a lack of sexy issues up and down the ballot, non-races at the statewide level – have been discussed in this blog. I’ll add that the open primary format – if it was intended to boost participation — has been a dismal failure this year. When you’re not calling on the electorate to actually … Read more

Categories: Polls| San Diego| Voters

Did Someone in San Diego Say “Rally?”

Yep, over the past week San Diego voters have shown some giddy-up. Not enough to avoid a record low voter turnout for the June Primary, but at least the city will avoid LA-like ignominy where turnout lands in the teens. The previous 16% projection for voter turnout was based on data from last week and it turned out to be just too awful to last. With the wildfires and Memorial Day barbeques behind them and Election Day only a week away, more high propensity voters have rousted themselves. The folks we count on to regularly do their civic duty are now starting to participate more like they have in the past. On the other hand, there is no evidence at … Read more

Categories: Polls| San Diego| Voters

Column Image Vote and Prove Me Wrong

With the June Primary almost a week away, San Diego is on the cusp of experiencing record low voter turnout. I’m talking about turnout potentially so weak it could damage the city’s psyche. The top of the ticket and propositions are usually responsible for creating excitement and driving voters to the polls, but those campaigns have been blah, blah, blah. Incumbent California Governor Jerry Brown is content to let nature take its course. In a state where his Democrats enjoy a 15% advantage over Republicans, the popular Governor is mounting no campaign and many Democrats see zero reason to cast a ballot. Largely dispirited Republicans are not thrilled about going to the polls (though, being Republicans, many will vote anyway). … Read more

Categories: Polls| San Diego| Voters


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