Category Archives: San Diego

Kristin Gaspar’s Razor-thin Win, Blow-by-Blow

Just after election night, San Diego County District 3 watchers asked me how much of a chance Kristin Gaspar had of overcoming her then 1.7% deficit. I called it “unlikely, but not a longshot.” Read more

Categories: Campaigns| San Diego

CERC’s Final Voter Turnout Prediction

The 2016 Presidential election has induced much gnashing of teeth among voters. It seems like there has been an unprecedented amount of attention paid to election-related stress relief. Read more

Categories: San Diego| Voters

San Diego Election Turnout: The Postscript and the Preview

Now that all the votes have been tallied, let us take a look and see how our Competitive Edge predictions for the June primary election played out. When we posted the final turnout projection on June 1 for San Diego County, I called it at 51%. Lo and behold, the turnout was in fact 51% for the County. It is important to note this distinction: turnout for the presidential nomination and the contest for U.S. Senate drew fewer voters. In each of those contests, 45% of the county’s registered voters participated. This means plenty of ballots were left blank in these races. What gives? Faced with unappetizing choices, many Republicans skipped those races but cast their votes for other offices … Read more

Categories: San Diego

Money Can’t Buy You Love, But In Politics It Can Buy Your Attention

Two days after Carlsbad residents voted whether to allow commercial development alongside designated open space on 200+ acres between the Agua Hedionda Lagoon and Cannon Road, we still don’t know whether Measure A passed or failed. Read more

Categories: San Diego

Marty Tries to Use a Poll to Pull a Fast One October 27, 2015

Marty Tries to Use a Poll to Pull a Fast One October 27, 2015 My previous blog post identified an appalling lack of transparency in the reports of the polling conducted for Assemblywoman Toni Atkins. Bad stuff there. Not to be outdone, Senator Marty Block released his own internal campaign polling. He used the GaronHartYang Research Group for his polling. This is the same outfit that conducted an infamous Chargers poll a few months back. Block’s October 9 press release made no mention of it, trumpeting that his poll was conducted by the “NBC News/Wall Street Journal Pollster” insinuating it was a media poll rather than his campaign poll. Block’s release blares, “Poll Shows Block with Double Digit Lead in … Read more

Categories: Polls| San Diego


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