Category Archives: Voters

CERC’s Final Voter Turnout Prediction

The 2016 Presidential election has induced much gnashing of teeth among voters. It seems like there has been an unprecedented amount of attention paid to election-related stress relief. Read more

Categories: San Diego| Voters

Voter Turnout Will Stink Again – What Else Is New in California?

ELECTION EVE UPDATE, June 6:  Well wouldn’t you know it?  I write a blog post talking about California’s stinky voter turnout and the next day things start picking up.  I’m therefore raising my turnout projection for the state of California to 42%, for San Diego County to 51% and for the City of San Diego to 46%. While most observers would likely characterize these levels of voter participation as sickly, they are big improvements over what we were facing only last week.  One important caveat for local races:  There will be a sizeable number of people who vote for a Presidential nominee but not on so-called “down ballot” races. Historically, there could be a 5% drop-off to the mayoral vote … Read more

Categories: Trump| Voters

The Record for Apathy

My final prediction for voter turnout in California’s 2014 mid-term elections is 45 percent to 47 percent, a record for apathy. The previous low of 51 percent, set in 2002, will be eclipsed due to a top of the ticket race that provoked more yawns than votes. Read more

Categories: Voters

Voters Now Shifting into Gear

Well how do you like that? No sooner do I post dire voter turnout projections for the state than California’s voters start trying to prove me wrong.  In the days since my initial prediction, participation in the 2014 election has surged. What had looked like a dip in turnout was only a lull in the action. At this point, I’m still predicting a record low. The lowest participation rate for a gubernatorial general election was 51% in 2002. I now calculate that only 47% to 50% of the state’s registered voters will cast a ballot. There is a chance that a record won’t be set. I’ll update my turnout projection with a final percentage on Monday.         … Read more

Categories: In The News| Voters

Failure to Engage, Act 2

OK, voter turnout in the June Primary election was bad; well, “terrible” is a more apt description.  In the great state of California a measly 25 percent of voters did their civic duty. And, as the dourer among us have pointed out, that’s just among those registered to vote. Looking at the entire population of adults provides a more accurate gauge of civic engagement.  Of course that picture is even uglier, as only 18 percent of those eligible to vote did so.  But let’s not obsess about the past, because there is so much more to obsess about in the immediate future. As I’ve stated in previous blog posts, past tends to be prologue in electoral politics. Turnout in California’s … Read more

Categories: Polls| Voters


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