California Statewide Propositions Poll 2024

Criminal Justice Reform Will Pass, Minimum Wage Increase Likely Passing, Rent Control Likely Failing

Voters see this trio of important ballot measures in different ways. Prop 36, which would unwind some aspects of 2014’s Prop 47, continues to lead by a wide margin. In contrast, Prop 32, the measure to increase California’s minimum wage to $18, is barely at the 50% mark and its fate is yet to be decided. On the other hand, Prop 33, to give local governments the ability to institute rent control, is in trouble.

Prop 36

Our poll shows this measure won’t reach the heights indicated by other surveys, but it will pass handily. The main reason for its success: enough Californians are fed up. Half the voters say the state is on the wrong track, and the ones who strongly feel that way are overwhelmingly in the Prop 36 camp. Support ebbs among voters who don’t think things are so bad, but in a sign that even they share crime concerns, “yes” votes don’t dry up entirely.

California is known for being liberal, and those on the far left generally do oppose the tough-on-crime measure. However, those voters tend to be isolated on this issue, as moderate liberals support Prop 36 57% of the time and conservatives overwhelmingly vote for it.

The results also indicate that the Asian American community is skeptical of the measure, voting “no” 62% of the time. The slightly smaller group of Black voters are split on Prop 36; it’s Whites and other ethnicities, including multi-ethnic voters who drive it to approval. Additionally, very strong support exists among foreign-born voters.

Prop 32

The voters’ bad mood also tamps down support for the minimum wage increase to make the outcome close. “Wrong track” voters oppose the measure, while upbeat voters are all-in on Prop 32. In better times, the measure would sail to approval, but so many handwringers make this close.

There are also significant partisan differences. Republicans overwhelmingly oppose Prop 32, while Democrats generally support it (though less definitively). With so many California Democrat voters, that dynamic is typically the ticket to passage. However, non-partisan and minor party voters are skeptical of raising the minimum to $18, as 56% of them have lined up against it, helping put approval in doubt.

Geography plays a role as well. Voters in San Diego and Riverside counties are far more supportive of Prop 32. We also find recent registrants fully engaged on this issue. Those registering after 2020 are voting “yes” nearly 80% of the time.

Prop 33

Rent control seems to be on California’s ballot every cycle and is voted down every time. 2024 will likely continue that string. Unlike Props 36 and 32, how voters view Prop 33 has more to do with their ideology than their mood, suggesting rent control has become a flashpoint in the battle between conservatives and liberals. The latter line up in support of Prop 33, but not as strongly as conservatives oppose the measure.  Moderates in the middle also oppose it by a healthy margin. Even in liberal California, ballot measures have trouble winning without support from the middle of the ideological spectrum.

Prop 33 gets a lot of support from less educated voters. Those without a college degree make up nearly a quarter of the likely electorate and are typically lower income. They’re “yes” voters nearly half the time. However, voters with associate degrees and graduate degrees are generally better off financially and most oppose giving cities the ability to impose rent control.

Methodology

Competitive Edge Research (CERC), established in 1987, is California’s premier political research firm. This scientific poll was conducted October 28-30, 2024, among a random sample of 517 voters pulled from California registration rolls. CERC’s live interviewers invited respondents to take the survey via landline and cell phone. Invitations were also sent via text and via email. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.3 at the 95% confidence level. Sampling error may not be the only source of polling error.

Partisan divisions are 48%-28%-17%-7%, Democrats-Republicans-independents-minor party. Respondents were screened for their intention to vote and those reporting they were unlikely to cast a ballot were removed from the sample. The topline and crosstabs can be accessed here.