success story
Ballot Measures
The El Cajon City Council governs the city, setting policies, approving budgets, and overseeing municipal services. It consists of five members, including the mayor, elected to represent residents and businesses.
Measure J’s Comeback: How Polling & Strategic Targeting Turned Defeat into a Resounding Win
Challenge
What was Measure J? Originally passed by El Cajon’s voters in 2008, Measure J added a 1/2 cent sales tax that funds essential services. It included a 20-year sunset clause.
When El Cajon’s Prop J faced renewal in 2022, City Manager Graham Mitchell and his team felt confident going into the campaign. The pollster told them their numbers were strong, and homelessness was an issue they could leverage. They leaned on familiar outreach tactics: mailers, social media, and public meetings.
Then the election night results rolled in. The team’s confidence shattered. Despite their efforts, Prop J failed — by more than the 20% margin polling projected it would pass with. The defeat was shocking and humbling. Had they misread public sentiment? Was the messaging off? Or was there a deeper disconnect between the city and its voters?
As the team analyzed what went wrong, frustration mounted. The polling had led them to rely on broad messaging, assuming most voters understood Prop J’s importance. The polling had not prepared them for opposition messaging. Other than “we got a late start” and “voters can change their minds,” no answers came from the poll or the pollster.
The team knew it couldn’t afford another miscalculation; rebuilding from the ground up was required. It was time to rethink their approach, engage differently, and find a way to bridge the gap between the city and residents. They faced the following issues:
The City’s campaign was built on flawed assumptions. The pollster the city had hired lacked fundamentals – and this threw the results way off.
Complex Issues Were Mismanaged. The pollster’s approach was oversimplified, and the campaign suffered from inconsistent and scattershot messaging.
Trust Had Been Eroded.The City Council had become skeptical, and community engagement efforts now faced an uphill battle. Voters didn’t just reject Prop J — they questioned whether city leadership was even listening.
When El Cajon’s Prop J faced renewal in 2022, City Manager Graham Mitchell and his team felt confident going into the campaign. The pollster told them their numbers were strong, and homelessness was an issue they could leverage. They leaned on familiar outreach tactics: mailers, social media, and public meetings.
Then the election night results rolled in. The team’s confidence shattered. Despite their efforts, Prop J failed — by more than the 20% margin polling projected it would pass with. The defeat was shocking and humbling. Had they misread public sentiment? Was the messaging off? Or was there a deeper disconnect between the city and its voters?
As the team analyzed what went wrong, frustration mounted. The polling had led them to rely on broad messaging, assuming most voters understood Prop J’s importance. The polling had not prepared them for opposition messaging. Other than “we got a late start” and “voters can change their minds,” no answers came from the poll or the pollster.
The team knew it couldn’t afford another miscalculation; rebuilding from the ground up was required. It was time to rethink their approach, engage differently, and find a way to bridge the gap between the city and residents. They faced the following issues:
The City’s campaign was built on flawed assumptions. The pollster the city had hired lacked fundamentals – and this threw the results way off.
Complex Issues Were Mismanaged. The pollster’s approach was oversimplified, and the campaign suffered from inconsistent and scattershot messaging.
Trust Had Been Eroded.The City Council had become skeptical, and community engagement efforts now faced an uphill battle. Voters didn’t just reject Prop J — they questioned whether city leadership was even listening.
Response
El Cajon’s leadership faced a hard truth: their strategy had failed, and they needed a new approach.
Mitchell and his staff realized they had to rebuild credibility with both the City Council and the public. The first step was acknowledging where they had gone wrong: overconfidence in polling that lacked depth, led to a one-size-fits-all messaging approach, and fostered an overreliance on broad outreach.
They decided to hire new researchers. They added a professional outreach team. This would ultimately change everything and proved transformational to their campaign. The polling and analysis would provide the team with a clear understanding of what issues, attitudes, and demographics were truly vote determinative.
The coup de grace? El Cajon would leave nothing to chance by having CERC conduct a second comprehensive poll before the decision to place the measure on the ballot was finalized.
Mitchell and his staff realized they had to rebuild credibility with both the City Council and the public. The first step was acknowledging where they had gone wrong: overconfidence in polling that lacked depth, led to a one-size-fits-all messaging approach, and fostered an overreliance on broad outreach.
They decided to hire new researchers. They added a professional outreach team. This would ultimately change everything and proved transformational to their campaign. The polling and analysis would provide the team with a clear understanding of what issues, attitudes, and demographics were truly vote determinative.
The coup de grace? El Cajon would leave nothing to chance by having CERC conduct a second comprehensive poll before the decision to place the measure on the ballot was finalized.
Solution Set
With a new direction, new solutions can shine. For El Cajon’s challenging Measure J campaign, CERC helped drive those solutions.
CERC’s polling revealed Measure J’s strengths – funding public safety — and weaknesses – a confusing “override” provision. Now the campaign was able to tailor a measure that voters could get behind. Instead of high-level, superficial projections, the new data and analysis provided deeper insights into voter sentiment and broke down key issues — like homelessness, fiscal responsibility, and the city council itself — into nuanced perspectives.
Rather than treating voters as a monolith, the team learned from CERC’s comprehensive report and presentation how to target various demographic segments with tailored messaging that resonated with their specific concerns.
Geo-targeting, audience-specific messaging, and precision communication became the new operative strategy. Instead of blasting generic statements, they crafted digital, mail, and media outreach that spoke to voter segments. The outreach team held town hall meetings in each council district so that voters actually felt heard and council members could hear directly from their constituents.
Key Findings
Strategic Endorsements
For conservative voters, police officers emphasized the stakes for public safety, making it clear that a “no” vote on Prop J meant fewer resources for law enforcement. The message resonated: supporting Prop J wasn’t about taxes — it was about keeping El Cajon safe.
For liberal voters, firefighters took a different approach, expressing gratitude for past support and reinforcing the importance of continued funding. Their message focused on maintaining emergency response times and protecting relied upon services. Precision Spending
Every campaign dollar was kept within El Cajon’s city limits and reached the registered voters most likely to engage. The focus was on efficiency — maximizing impact, without waste.
Efficient Execution
With a clear strategy in place, the campaign ensured that every message reached the right audience at the right time.
Digital Ads. Videos featuring police and firefighters were tailored for different voter segments and deployed like clockwork.
Mailers. Two prominent waves of direct mail reinforced key messages, each designed to resonate with specific voter profiles.
Grassroots Efforts. Door hangers and yard signs increased visibility and sparked neighborhood conversations.
For conservative voters, police officers emphasized the stakes for public safety, making it clear that a “no” vote on Prop J meant fewer resources for law enforcement. The message resonated: supporting Prop J wasn’t about taxes — it was about keeping El Cajon safe.
For liberal voters, firefighters took a different approach, expressing gratitude for past support and reinforcing the importance of continued funding. Their message focused on maintaining emergency response times and protecting relied upon services. Precision Spending
Every campaign dollar was kept within El Cajon’s city limits and reached the registered voters most likely to engage. The focus was on efficiency — maximizing impact, without waste.
Efficient Execution
With a clear strategy in place, the campaign ensured that every message reached the right audience at the right time.
Digital Ads. Videos featuring police and firefighters were tailored for different voter segments and deployed like clockwork.
Mailers. Two prominent waves of direct mail reinforced key messages, each designed to resonate with specific voter profiles.
Grassroots Efforts. Door hangers and yard signs increased visibility and sparked neighborhood conversations.
Results
The campaign was a resounding victory, flipping the script on the 2022 failure. The success demonstrated the power of CERC’s polling and analysis to guide a data-driven strategy and targeted messaging. Voters who had been skeptical now had a clearer understanding of how the measure impacted their communities.
The campaign’s precise outreach helped bridge the gap between El Cajon’s elected officials – and what they thought – and the voters – and what they needed, reinforcing transparency and trust in the process. What once seemed like an insurmountable challenge became a case study in strategic adaptation.
By leveraging data insights to refine voter communication, and engaging the public more effectively, the city not only won the vote, but laid the groundwork for more civic engagement. The lessons learned will shape how the city approaches future initiatives.
Targeted Impact. The refined strategy reached the right voters with the right message at the right time. Data-driven insights allowed the campaign to engage key demographics more effectively. As a result, voter turnout among targeted groups increased significantly, securing the measure’s passage.
Public Resonance. Messaging that connected real issues to everyday life changed the conversation. Voters no longer saw Prop J as just another tax measure, but as a direct investment in their community’s safety and well-being. The shift in perception helped rebuild confidence in local leadership and civic initiatives.
Strategic Focus. Every campaign decision was guided by analytics rather than assumptions. The team optimized spending, refined their methods, and adjusted messaging in real-time based on voter engagement data. This ensured that resources were maximized, and eliminated wasted effort.
Restored Trust. Transparent messaging and trusted messengers helped bridge the gap between the city and its residents. The success set a precedent for future campaigns. It proved that clear, targeted communication does lead to lasting public confidence.
The campaign’s precise outreach helped bridge the gap between El Cajon’s elected officials – and what they thought – and the voters – and what they needed, reinforcing transparency and trust in the process. What once seemed like an insurmountable challenge became a case study in strategic adaptation.
By leveraging data insights to refine voter communication, and engaging the public more effectively, the city not only won the vote, but laid the groundwork for more civic engagement. The lessons learned will shape how the city approaches future initiatives.
Targeted Impact. The refined strategy reached the right voters with the right message at the right time. Data-driven insights allowed the campaign to engage key demographics more effectively. As a result, voter turnout among targeted groups increased significantly, securing the measure’s passage.
Public Resonance. Messaging that connected real issues to everyday life changed the conversation. Voters no longer saw Prop J as just another tax measure, but as a direct investment in their community’s safety and well-being. The shift in perception helped rebuild confidence in local leadership and civic initiatives.
Strategic Focus. Every campaign decision was guided by analytics rather than assumptions. The team optimized spending, refined their methods, and adjusted messaging in real-time based on voter engagement data. This ensured that resources were maximized, and eliminated wasted effort.
Restored Trust. Transparent messaging and trusted messengers helped bridge the gap between the city and its residents. The success set a precedent for future campaigns. It proved that clear, targeted communication does lead to lasting public confidence.